Supreme Novices Update: Jezki and Sizing Rio

It is back to Ireland for this update as in Britain the one novice hurdler who had looked capable of developing into a Supreme Novices’ horse was beaten, showing signs of immaturity and waywardness in the process. Mr Mole has significant potential but the fierce hold he took and his tendency to hang left late in races leave him with questions to answer. Far more amenable this weekend was Jezki, who ran out an ultra-impressive winner of the Grade 3 hurdle for four-year-olds at Naas.

Jezki ended last season as one of Ireland’s best bumper horses, winning twice and only beaten in the notably competitive Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival. Jessica Harrington’s four-year-old son of Milan started his career in January in a warm looking bumper where he faced an odds shot trained by Dermot Weld, Silver Concorde, and a well regarded newcomer trained by Noel Meade, Ned Buntline. Jezki, understandably, took a while to settle on his race debut, eventually dropping back to the rear with his rider in search of cover. As the runners entered the home straight, he circled the field, finding himself in a battle with Ned Buntline. The race was in doubt for a moment but a useful looking turn of foot saw him home, winning cosily in the end. Ned Buntline ran again for the first time in another bumper on Saturday, on the same card as Jezki, and he slaughtered his field thereby adding further merit to the debut performance of Jessica Harrington’s charge.

This run promised much for the future and on his next start in March, Jezki proved he had learnt from his initial experience, winning very easily, looking a high class animal in the process. Here he displayed his inherent speed, travelling smoothly through the race before cruising to victory from his stablemate The Big Easy, a gelding destined for chasing. There was little of note behind but this style of victory put him into the picture for the Cheltenham bumper and whilst it was just ten days later, Jezki had hardly had a race so there was every reason to go.

Jezki was very keen as the tapes went up at Cheltenham but he was soon settled in rear of mid-division. He maintained his position well through the race, moving comfortably into contention coming down the hill before his effort flattened out. Whether this was down to a lack of stamina, having looked a speed horse up until then, or a lack of experience, having only had the two races, this was still an encouraging run, eventually finishing eighth. The loss of his unbeaten tag may have been disappointing but it did not take away from his promising first season and a successful career over hurdles was in prospect.

After a pipe-opener on the flat, where Jezki finished fifth behind the likes of Go Native and Glam Gerry, Jessica Harrington’s charge began his hurdling career over two miles at Naas (29th October). There looked to be one serious rival beforehand and so it proved with impressive bumper scorer Ally Cascade, another for Noel Meade, fighting out the finish with Jezki, leaving the rest a distance behind. The race was run at a steady gallop with Jezki always travelling sweetly. His jockey, Barry Geraghty decided to track Ally Cascade until the two were clear and Jezki’s turn of speed saw him swoop by while the runner up merely plugged on. On the evidence of this run the front two look high class recruits, with Jezki’s pace proving the difference, and Ally Cascade may well become high achieving novice hurdler once upped in trip.

On his first start over hurdles, Jezki travelled well, jumped neatly and displayed his potent turn of foot. This was all again on display at the weekend on his first foray into graded company. In this early season test for four-year-olds, Jezki moved smartly through the race before pulling away after the last for an emphatic eight length win. Even when messed about at the final two flights by the runner up, Un Beau Matin, Jezki jumped quickly, displaying a sure-footedness that can only hold him in good stead for the future. The form in behind Jezki though is very questionable as his main market-rivals ran no race at all and he was getting nearly a stone from the fourth placed runner, favourite, Hisaabaat. Un Beau Matin had also not shown a great deal in his two starts since arriving from France. It was almost certainly a career best from Gordon Elliott’s son of Sagamix and it may be unwise to underestimate him in similar events for such a talented trainer, while at the same time, I wouldn’t be overly keen to back him to confirm the form with those in behind.

There are significant doubts over the strength of this race and Jezki will have to show significant improvement to be considered as a potential Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner, but what is so appealing about Jezki is that, in all likelihood, he will do. For a horse with so much natural speed he has been excelling on ground that would surely not see him to best effect and in winning a graded race by eight lengths on the bridle he has performed in the style of a high class hurdler. The real test will come when he makes the leap into Grade 1 company in the Royal Bond. If he shows up well there, and there is no reason to think he is not capable, then he becomes a real contender for the top honours come March. Even if he is beaten, Jezki is not necessarily one to give up on as the prevailing ground in Ireland will always blunt his speed to an extent, a situation which he is unlikely to face at Cheltenham.

I have already discussed Sizing Rio here on the back of his debut over hurdles, in which he looked an exciting prospect. A rise in class was expected for Henry De Bromhead’s charge and on Sunday at Navan he took this rise firmly in his stride. Sent off the 4/5 favourite, Sizing Rio, who may require a decent pace to run at, took up the running from the third flight. He again showed his enthusiasm for jumping with one particularly special, race sealing leap at the last. He jumps in the style of a chaser and his trainer suggested that is where his future lies. 

This was not the saunter to victory that his hurdling debut was and, jockey, Andrew Lynch had to shake him up to see off the attentions of Ted Veale but as soon as it was needed he found what was required on the run-in. Ted Veale was a very useful horse in bumpers and his victories in a maiden flat race and two subsequent hurdle races marked him out as a classy individual for Tony Martin. Just the heavy ground over an inadequate trip next time saw him disappoint. Some may be concerned that Sizing Rio only narrowly defeated Ted Veale but he is an underrated novice hurdler and the winner’s superiority over the runner-up and the rest of the field is probably far greater than it seemed here and he is still in the Supreme picture.

It is a slight worry however, in terms of Supreme Novice aspirations, that Sizing Rio’s trainer sees him as a “big raw four-year-old” as he may be willing to skip the punishing test of the Cheltenham Festival at this stage with the ultimate aim of returning there for tests over fences. There is still plenty of time for connections to decide which direction to go in and the intention now is to take a break until a Christmas. A much bigger worry is Sizing Rio’s dislike for travelling around left-handed bends. It was plain to see during Sunday’s race that Andrew Lynch was struggling to manoeuvre this scopey gelding around the turns and with Cheltenham in mind, it is hard to envisage a scenario where a horse with these problems could compete. Sizing Rio appears to be an extremely talented novice who jumps fluently, consistently making ground at his hurdles, but until there are signs that he is over his dislike for left-handed turns or they make Cheltenham right-handed, he has to be viewed with a considerable degree of caution.

Supreme Novices Update: My Tent Or Yours

Normal service was resumed this weekend, as Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson dominated the jumping scene on both sides of the Irish Sea. The most visually impressive performance of the weekend was Silviniaco Conti’s rout in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby. He may have beaten overrated and unfit rivals but the style of this performance along with his rock solid novices’ chase form marks him out as a key player in all the major staying chases this season for Paul Nicholls. At Ascot, we saw a performance significantly less impressive but from a horse with arguably just as much potential in his division, the Nicky Henderson trained, My Tent Or Yours.

If pressed for my 2013 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner, at the start of this jumps season, I would probably have said My Tent Or Yours. Now, having witnessed his first run over hurdles, I am reluctant to switch allegiances just yet.

As a bumper horse he was always highly regarded, he even started odds-on for his first two starts and second favourite for the Aintree Champion Bumper. In the run-up to Aintree Nicky Henderson made it clear that he felt this son of Desert Prince was his best in that sphere.

For his first start under rules, Henderson sent My Tent Or Yours to Ludlow, a venue where he often likes to test his talented youngsters. Over 1m6f he settled well, surprisingly well considering how keen he has been in all his subsequent starts. This was quite a well run bumper and that surely aided his cause, as did the trip as it put the emphasis far more on speed. As a result, he ran out a supremely comfortable nine length winner displaying his undoubted class (with, the since unbeaten in four, Vegas Cash back in fourth). After a performance worthy of a step up in class, My Tent Or Yours was set the considerably stiffer task of the DBS Sales Bumper at Newbury. On this occasion Nicky Henderson’s charge pulled hard almost throughout and his rider, Barry Geraghty, said “he didn’t drop the bit until we were turning in for home”. It was, therefore, extremely creditable to finish second to Up To Something (a winner on his hurdling debut this season), beaten barely more than a length. Already a dual bumper winner, Up To Something had the run of the race up front and his trainer Charlie Longsdon sees him as novice hurdler for races over 2m4f+, consequently it was no disgrace for My Tent Or Yours to just be outstayed over an extended two miles. Inexperience also looked to play a part in this defeat as it was only his second ever race and his first ‘battle’.

Connections of My Tent Or Yours, understandably, felt he was unlucky at Newbury and headed to Aintree full of confidence. His abundance of speed, shown at Ludlow and Newbury, suggested Aintree would suit. Again, he pulled hard through early stages, although not to the same extent as at Newbury, but this time Geraghty managed to settle him. Due to his strikingly high cruising speed My Tent Or Yours inevitably took himself to the front earlier than ideal and although the rest of the field were under pressure and he was seemingly tanking along, he just couldn’t find enough off the bridle to repel the late charge of The New One. Ostensibly a stayer, The New One was always a possible danger if stamina was brought into play. The Aintree race was also over 2m1f and at the moment it looks as if two miles is My Tent Or Yours’ limit. As such, he did well to finish where he did, ahead of many useful performers and the form of the race has worked out exceptionally well. The New One has already won impressively twice over hurdles, while My Tent Or Yours in second, Court Minstrel (fourth), Ifyousayso (fifth) and Kaysersberg (14th) have all won on their hurdling debuts this season. This, coupled with the way he moved through race, left the impression that My Tent Or Yours would be an exciting prospect for novice hurdles.

J P McManus evidently agreed and he purchased Barry Geraghty’s usual mount thereby leaving the responsibility of guiding this promising novice through his first season over hurdles to A P McCoy. McCoy had in fact ridden My Tent Or Yours on his racecourse debut so he wasn’t unfamiliar with the strong travelling bay gelding.

At Ascot, My Tent Or Yours was sent off a heavily fancied 4/7 favourite. He had plainly been showing the right signs at home and his bumper form entitled him to be where he was in the market. There were however murmurings of support for the opposition he faced, primarily the French import Taquin Du Seuil, a winner at Uttoxeter on his hurdling debut (for McCoy), and the listed class flat performer Chiberta King.

It was clear from the outset that McCoy was in for a battle with My Tent Or Yours as his free going, hard pulling tendencies resurfaced and appeared worse than ever. He was anchored in last place but the race was run at an extremely slow pace which was never likely to suit and after jumping the first well he was by no means foot perfect over his obstacles, making a hash of the fourth, knocking the hurdle flat, and the last, where he was particularly slow. The pace remained steady until My Tent Or Yours, in effect, pulled his way into second just alongside Taquin Du Seuil rounding the final bend. Together they quickly managed to put distance between them and the field. While there were two horses left in with a chance there seemed little doubt that McCoy would come out on top as he approached the last yet to move on My Tent Or Yours while Geraghty, coincidentally replacing McCoy on Taquin Du Seuil, was all out in an attempt to remain alongside. With the mistake at the last and his history of failing to find as much as expected off the bridle, there was a moment’s worry and My Tent Or Yours had to be pushed out until he found the extra gear which he seems to posses. One crack of the whip was all but unnecessary and while he was in receipt of 5lbs from the runner-up and the winning distance was only a length-and-three-quarters, there was no hiding his superiority.

The way he has shaped on each of his four starts, particularly his most recent, suggests he will be at his best when faced with a strong pace in a big field. One cannot fail to be impressed by the way My Tent Or Yours travels so menacingly through a race, very few horses can match his ability to catch the eye, and for a hurdler he looks to be all about speed. Once he gets the strong pace he needs over two miles, he will be a major force to be reckoned with and I will not entertain any doubts over his class.

                                                                                                                                    

While his speed will get him so far, he will need to show that he finds for pressure once he comes off the bridle. I am sure that in previews to his future races people will be desperate to suggest laying him short in running as he has travelled strongly without delivering the anticipated finishing kick on three occasions. Excuses can be found however, and I believe he will have to come across something really smart to be beaten in the near future. At Newbury, the clearest case of him not finding off the bridle, My Tent Or Yours came up against a horse who had controlled the race from the front while Nicky Henderson’s charge showed signs of inexperience. At Aintree, he came across a top class horse in The New One who stays well and it was over a trip that just stretched his stamina to. Whilst, this weekend he came up against a small field with no pace and had to fight out the finish with, a not to be underestimated opponent in Taquin Du Seuil. Having previously shown a decent level of form on the flat in France, Taquin Du Seuil could not have been more impressive at Uttoxeter on his hurdling debut, beating the odds on favourite by fifteen lengths eased down. He has jumped well on both runs over hurdles and is surely one to look out for in future, while it is possible that he lacks the class to challenge in a Supreme Novices’.

It is also possible that he just came across a seriously talented horse in My Tent Or Yours, potentially the best two-mile novice hurdler in the country. Were this to be the case, the 20/1 available now for the Supreme would look very generous but it is so early that I would have to see the whole package to get involved now. He has the speed, the class and there are no doubts over him stepping up in trip. But, the fact remains My Tent Or Yours has had only one run over hurdles and he jumped poorly. If on his next start he jumps well and shows that he has learned from this experience, then the prospect of a double figure price, even months in advance, may become too tempting to resist.

Supreme Novices 2013 update: Waaheb, Sizing Rio & Pique Sous

The last week has seen a number of prospective Cheltenham bound novice hurdlers deliver credible performances. While in this country we’ve been light on potential Supreme Novice Hurdlers, Ireland has thrown up a few.

The highly anticipated hurdling debut of the top class bumper horse Waaheb came last Tuesday and he displayed all the attributes which made him such a potent force in National Hunt flat races. In January 2011 he won his first bumper, in February his second and in April his third. On each occasion he won easily marking him out as Ireland’s best prospect in that sphere and it was almost inevitable that, having previously been owned by trainer Dermot Weld’s son, he would be purchased by JP McManus. In his colours he stepped up in class, skipping the likely stamina test of the Cheltenham’s Champion Bumper, and took in in the Punchestown Festival’s Champion I.N.H Flat Race. Waaheb was sent off the 15/8 favourite and up until that point he had been vastly superior to those he had faced, but this time he met his match in Lovethehigherlaw, who was Willie Mullins’s best bumper horse that season. At the end of an epic battle up Punchestown’s home straight Willie Mullins son of Presenting ultimately outstayed Dermot Weld’s charge. The untimely demise of Lovethehigherlaw robbed him of a bright future over obstacles and it was left to Waaheb give us a sense of what might have been.

Almost immediately after the race Waaheb was made favourite, in most antepost lists, for the 2012 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, remaining in that position until it was sadly confirmed that injury had ruled him out for the season. Seemingly unconcerned by his injury bookmakers once again put him in as antepost favourite, before he jumped a hurdle in public, for the 2013 version. Waaheb’s latent talent was there for all to see in bumpers, the question was whether he could carry over this talent to the hurdling game. The signs from his seasonal reappearance at Fairyhouse are generally good.

Having settled well in last place for Mark Walsh he took on the first flight and, almost certainly due to his inexperience, he dived at it. This was, in reality, of little concern and somewhat in response to that he ballooned the second. After these early sighters he jumped efficiently, only jumping left when forced to by Coldstonesober, never losing ground on the leaders. Unsurprisingly for a horse that showed so much class in bumpers, Waaheb travelled strongly throughout and as he picked off his opponents one by one there was never a question who the winner would be. As he approached the last, upsides a couple of others, it seemed a comfortable victory was on the cards. Following a decent final jump, he was shaken up and put in a burst of acceleration taking him away from the field posting an even more impressive performance than looked likely, winning by six-and-a-half lengths. This performance showed that his injury and time off has not dented his pace, pace that many of his subsequent rivals will lack. He jumped well enough for a debut and there is little doubt that he will improve significantly from this race. Whether he will show his true ability when stepped up in grade later in the season on heavy ground is up for debate. What is not up for debate is that he is a novice hurdler with abundant promise, and with the anticipated progress from his debut he is one to be feared by all.

Just one race before Waaheb’s hurdling debut was a maiden hurdle restricted to four-year-olds and it is possible we saw another Supreme contender in that contest. This was a performance that has gone under the radar due to its proximity to Waaheb’s comeback, but it was no less impressive.

Sizing Rio began his career winning a point-to-point at Bennettsbridge by three lengths. It is difficult to know what he achieved there but, interestingly, in third that day was Clondaw Kaempfer who went on to win a valuable and competitive Fairyhouse bumper before moving to Donald McCain, for whom he won a novices’ hurdle impressively on Sunday.

On his first run under rules for Henry De Bromhead and the Potts Family, Sizing Rio disappointed. He was fancied to run well in a good four-year-old bumper at the Punchestown festival but he weakened tamely. It was assumed that back over obstacles he would be a different proposition and this was the case. He started second favourite behind Noel Meade’s Cops And Robbers. Cops And Robbers had been useful on the flat for Sir Michael Stoute (sold for £125,000) and had shaped well on his hurdling debut in Grade 3 so this was no easy task.

Positioned in second for most of the race, Sizing Rio jumped quickly and accurately, his technique improving as the race progressed. He was tracked throughout by major market rival Cops And Robbers and once tearaway leader Strategic Bid fell by the wayside it looked as if this son of Heron Island might have severe competition from Noel Meade’s charge. However, it soon became apparent that Sizing Rio was maintaining his advantage over Cops And Robbers and the race was put beyond doubt as he quickened around the home turn while the runner-up was struggling to keep him in sight. The final winning distance was eighteen lengths and there was a further eighteen back to the third. It may be argued that the form is weak but before the race Cops And Robbers was thought of as good hurdling prospect and I have no reason to doubt that, especially when one considers the fact that he has already won since, at Wexford on Sunday. There are few better in Ireland at producing Cheltenham horses than Henry De Bromhead and in Sizing Rio, who barely came off the bridle to achieve this demolition, jumping with alacrity and showing no lack of pace, he could have another one.

At the end of the last National Hunt season Pique Sous would have been at the forefront of many people’s minds when considering candidates for next (now this) season’s Supreme Novices. After a promising run on debut, in the valuable sales bumper at Fairyhouse, in April 2011 he was not seen out again until February of this year at Leopardstown. At Leopardstown he won impressively, displaying a turn of foot rarely seen in Irish bumpers. He then went to the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, supposedly, as Mullins’ best chance in the race. While he cantered all over his stablemate and resulting winner Champagne Fever, he was just outstayed and could manage only third. Mullins was keen to get more experience into him and therefore ran him three more times in National Hunt flat races during the summer, winning twice, before commencing his hurdling campaign at Cork in late August.

There was little doubt beforehand that Pique Sous would win on his hurdling debut and he was sent off at 1/3 but racing is, of course, never that simple and he failed to hold off Ted Dolly losing out by 2¾ lengths. He was far too free on that day pulling hard, giving himself little chance to finish strongly. Some suggested it was his jumping that let him down on this occasion and to a small extent I agree. It was deliberate at times, early on, but it was not causing him to lose ground. The crucial error came at the fourth last, where he severely pecked on landing, but this was mainly due to a horse in front jumping across him leaving unsighted. This clearly worried the son of Martaline as he ploughed through the next hurdle before his jockey, Emmet Mullins, finally let him stride on and he jumped the last beautifully. Unfortunately for connections, he just had nothing left to fend off the fast finishing winner.

On Wednesday, Pique Sous came out again at Thurles and connections were hoping he could redeem himself. The major concern from his hurdling debut was his keenness and to counter this, a change of tactics was employed by Ruby Walsh. Willie Mullins’ five-year-old was always likely to benefit from his hurdling bow, but setting off in front definitely made a difference. Pique Sous largely had an uncontested lead at Thurles and until a mistake at the fourth last he held a 3 or length cushion allowing him to settle in front. He was still keen enough through the race, although not to the extent of his previous racecourse experience, but despite the one aforementioned blunder he jumped noticeably well, thereby forcing his opposition to put in the extra effort which ultimately told. Rounding the final bend the field were closer than at any point during the race yet this time Pique Sous was able to pull away from his pursuers, posting a five length victory in the process.

Willie Mullins pointed out after the race that his is a horse that needs decent ground and he may be aimed at the Open Meeting at Cheltenham in November. This will be a real test for him as he will find it tougher to make all, if these are the tactics they employ again, and if he runs too free again the higher class of opposition, along with the stiff Cheltenham finish, could find him out. If Pique Sous does learn to settle though, and allows himself to be dropped in and ridden for the speed he showed in bumpers, he will be a force to be reckoned with. I do not share the concerns of many about his jumping, as it looks to me like the faster they go the better he jumps, and there aren’t too many slow Supremes.

Supreme Novices Update 2012/13: Court Minstrel and Dodging Bullets

With the first Cheltenham meeting already done with, I felt it appropriate to begin this season’s quest to identify the premier two-mile novice hurdler of the season. Sadly, for many like-minded individuals including myself, last season’s version, Simonsig, ended up running over 2m5f in The Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle. Again, this season I would prefer to see Simonsig displaying his undoubted prowess at two miles over hurdles but once again it seems I will be, to some extent, disappointed as Nicky Henderson is apparently leaning towards a chasing campaign. While I fully expect the former point-to-pointer to be ultra-successful over fences it is a shame that he is unlikely to be aimed at the Champion Hurdle, a race that looks his for the taking.

Unsurprisingly, Nicky Henderson has yet another strong team of prospective novice hurdlers this term but it was Evan Williams and Paul Nicholls who supplied this weekend’s early (very early) Supreme Novices contenders.

Lemington Maiden Hurdle

At Cheltenham on Friday twelve horses went to post in what appeared to be a competitive novices’ hurdle. The favourite was Population who had twice won bumpers impressively at Ascot before finishing sixth in the Aintree Champion bumper. However, it was a horse that finished two places in front of Population at Aintree that took the race and he won it impressively.

Court Minstrel had shown progressive form in bumpers prior to his Aintree fourth. Following a convincing victory at Ludlow, he finished a close second (also at Ludlow) to Tistory. Tistory will surely be one of Nicky Henderson’s most exciting novice hurdlers this season and Court Minstrel was arguably an unlucky loser in a contest where the front pair pulled well clear of the third. This was the first indication of the significant ability he possessed. Another return to Ludlow saw him pull off an eleven length demolition of his rivals and connections of this attractive son of Court Cave were understandably tempted by Aintree.

At Aintree Evan Williams’ charge was held up early in nineteenth of nineteen before gradually making his way through the pack to look threatening before not quite seeing out the 2m1f trip. In the end it turned into a stamina test with The New One, a potentially exceptional staying hurdler, coming out on top.

On that form Court Minstrel had every right to win Friday’s race and he did so in a manner which suggested he could be in contention for the big prize come March. As is his style, Court Minstrel was again dropped out in last place by Paul Moloney. Jumping neatly throughout, Court Minstrel travelled noticeably strongly, even on occasion pulling for his head, and soon after jumping the fourth last his rider let out an inch of rein to move through a swiftly closing gap. This was potentially the most impressive part of the race as he had passed four horses in just a couple of strides. From then on Paul Moloney kept having to pull him back in order to contain his effort for the finish and he remained firmly on the bridle until shaken up just after the last at which point he stormed up the Cheltenham hill pulling nearly 4 lengths clear of The Romford Pele.

This was as encouraging a hurdling debut as one could expect. He looks to have plenty of scope and there must be significant improvement in him as he is still struggling to completely settle. A large field and fast pace are likely to be his optimum conditions but as he gains experience he should become more amenable. There is the danger of overrating this performance as on face value it looks to be more about style than substance. His main rival in the race was supposed to be Population but his rider, Denis O’Regan, was unhappy some way out and he had to be pulled up with something clearly amiss. The Romford Pele had marked himself out as a good prospect with a seventh place finish in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, just one place behind the winner of Aintree’s equivalent The New One, but he had been beaten at odds-on at Market Rasen on hurdling debut and at Cheltenham he handed any advantage he had over to Court Minstrel with a sloppy jump at the last. In third was Titan De Sarti, who has largely been disappointing in his career to date and merely stayed on here suggesting a step up in trip is the next logical step.

Despite the lack of substance, the style of Court Minstrel’s win was particularly exciting and the strength of his bumper form suggests he is certainly a novice hurdler worth bearing in mind for the Supreme as the season progresses.

Masterson Holdings Hurdle

In contrast to the jumps bred Court Minstrel, who had learnt his trade in bumpers, Dodging Bullets was bred by Frankie Dettori for the flat. By Dubawi, he was in training with Andrew Oliver where he managed to win twice on the level before being bought to go juvenile hurdling. Placed in the care of champion trainer Paul Nicholls he had three runs last season, showing distinct promise in two of them, and his trainer had described him as the best maiden hurdler in training.

On his hurdling debut in the Grade 2 Dovecote at Kempton Dodging Bullets came up against Grumeti, a leading Triumph Hurdle fancy at the time he had already won twice and fallen once when victory was certain. Dodging Bullets finished only 1½ lengths behind Grumeti in the end having shown signs of his evident inexperience. His second start was at the Cheltenham Festival in the Triumph Hurdle where he showed the benefit of his first race over hurdles by finishing fourth, only a head behind Grumeti this time. He travelled well before only failing for lack of stamina in the gruelling test that last season’s Triumph became. It is sensible to ignore his final start of last season at Aintree as he was badly hampered and was possibly feeling the effects of a long flat season in 2011 followed by three relatively quick hard races over hurdles.

He has been leading fancy for the 2013 Supreme Novices ever since and his seasonal debut was highly anticipated. He was heavily backed on his first start over hurdles out of graded company, and in a sense he delivered what he promised with an emphatic 8 length win but there are niggling doubts left over him.

During the first part of the race Dodging Bullets pulled hard but that is understandable as he is still lightly raced over hurdles and this was a small field which was taken along at a slow pace. As the race developed and the pace quickened he eventually settled ok in behind the leading pair of Hi Note and second favourite Baby Mix. On the whole he jumped fluently but at the fourth last he was slow and suddenly there appeared to be a significant gap between him and the leaders. For a brief moment he looked in trouble but Ruby Walsh asked for extra effort and Dodging Bullets responded well. From then on each time Ruby asked Dodging Bullets to make ground he did so quickly. He reached the last upsides Hi Note, took it well, and powered clear up the hill. Paul Nicholls was keen to point out after the race that this four-year-old Dubawi gelding had had a breathing operation over the summer and would improve for the run.

The principle danger to Dodging Bullets beforehand looked to be Baby Mix but he again finished tamely into third having travelled well. He was giving Dodging Bullets 8lbs and may have needed the run but there must be serious concerns over his temperament and or soundness now. The second placed Hi Note is a tough, improving filly over hurdles and the form of her recent Stratford romp was boosted at Kempton on Sunday but one would hope that in future Dodging Bullets would be capable of brushing her aside more easily if he is to take high rank amongst the novice hurdlers. He had to be pushed by Ruby Walsh to make ground a number of times during the race and for him to be thought of as a really strong Supreme contender I would prefer to see him make these moves on the bridle. He may have hit a flat spot on Saturday, such a characteristic could be terminal in higher quality contests, but this may also just be a fitness issue, as Nicholls pointed out he should “be better for the experience”, in which case it is important not to judge him too harshly on the somewhat laboured style of this victory. Dodging Bullets may look a completely different proposition on his next start.

Supreme Novices Hurdle review: Cinders And Ashes

Following a vintage renewal in 2011 the Supreme Novices Hurdle was unlikely to reach those heights in 2012 and the lack of stars in the 2 mile division backed this up. Cinders And Ashes was in the end a good winner but the way the race panned out left the impression that it was no better than an average running of the Festival curtain raiser.

Traditionally run at a frenetic early pace, this time the field was taken along at a steady gallop by the eventual winner’s stablemate Agent Archie. The pace gradually quickened and Jason Maguire was well placed on the inside on Cinders And Ashes. Donald McCain’s son of Beat Hollow had marked his career so far with fluent, quick jumping but there was the exception at Ascot where he made that horror mistake which cost him the race. At Cheltenham his jumping was slick on the whole but he again made a significant early error, at the fourth. Fortunately for connections and supporters he had enough speed to recover quickly and despite being squeezed up against the rail at one point and another, quite serious, blunder at the last he held off AP McCoy in full flow aboard Darlan to record a one-and-a-quarter length victory.

Cinders And Ashes is evidently a horse with any amount of pace and the trainer’s assertion that he will be trained for the Champion Hurdle looks to be the right one. He will need to cut out the serious errors he seems capable of throwing into his races but with experience he should be able to seeing as, in general, his jumping is an asset. Another asset for the future would be his ability to handle any ground, as shown by his win here on quick ground and two victories in, admittedly weak races, on soft/heavy going.

It is possible to mark up his victory in the Supreme when one includes his last flight error but I see it differently as Montbazon made a similar one, as well as others, as did Darlan who landed flat footed, while Trifolium was slow at the second last. This list of errors from the front 4 suggests the race lacked real depth and were Cinders And Ashes to be a Champion Hurdle contender one would have hoped for a similar performance to that of Simonsig the following day. Improvement is expected, of course, but I would be surprised if he could improve enough to challenge the likes of Rock On Ruby and Spirit Son in 2013. 

Supreme Novices Hurdle: Preview and Selection

The disappointment of Simonsig taking up his entry in the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ hurdle instead of the Supreme has taken a while to get over but I am just about there now and I feel it is appropriate to put up another selection for the race.

Looking at the Supreme field it appears to be a weaker group than has often been the case, particularly compared to last season’s vintage renewal, and with the outstanding candidate Simonsig going elsewhere it has been left to another Henderson inmate, Darlan, to take up the mantle as favourite. Darlan has been highly vaunted all his life and after his 27 length victory in his bumper great things were expected. He has generally been impressive but worryingly for favourite backers his worst performance was over the course in December and he is coming into the race off the back of a heavy fall at Newbury. That run looked likely to be his best yet and had he won or been in the first three then his current price may be justified. However, it is plausible that he would have found little coming off the bridle and finished 5th. We are still unsure of what he will find when asked, and despite his tall reputation at home this question mark stands, therefore 9/2 is simply too short to consider taking.  

I also have doubts over the next few in the market, all at single figures. Steps To Freedom looked one of the top bumper horses last season having won the Aintree bumper in good style and has been at or near the top of the betting for the Supreme Novices ever since. Following a productive flat season Jessie Harrington’s charge won his first two hurdle races comfortably and he was sent to Cheltenham in November in order to gain experience of the track. At the time managing to beat Prospect Wells looked high class form, especially with the promising Ericht back in third. Subsequent events have shown this form to be far weaker than first impressions indicated with Prospect Wells being exposed next time in a handicap at Ascot and Ericht showing little to nothing in three subsequent starts. Steps To Freedom was probably better than he showed that day on the back of a hard flat season and two quick hurdle runs but I still doubt whether he will be quite good enough here.

Galileos Choice is next in the betting but I see his price as being mainly based around his flat form, which is admittedly high class, as his hurdle runs haven’t been at a standard where he deserves to be 7/1 for the Supreme. He should have won the Royal Bond were he a genuine contender, instead he lost to a stayer in Sous Les Cieux and then he beat a four mile chaser next time in the manner one would expect. Galileos Choice may improve for faster ground and he is still lightly raced so there should be more to come but his trainer is gearing him up for a full flat season. Dermot Weld has also said he doubts his horse has enough experience for a race of this nature and as a result I am content in avoiding him.

Cinders And Ashes since his horror mistake at Ascot, costing him the race, has jumped well and shown a great deal of class in a couple of comfortable heavy ground victories in the north. This added to his useful bumper form from last season marks him out as a major contender for the race. Saying that, he finished tamely in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper having travelled smoothly and has beaten little of note since defeating Keys, who has let the form down subsequently anyway. Donald McCain’s novice, by Beat Hollow, has solid credentials but it would surprise me were there not a horse with bit more class in there capable of swooping past him up the famous Cheltenham Hill.

The final Horse generally available in single figures at the moment is the Willie Mullins trained Midnight Game. He is a horse with an eye-catching progressive profile and last time out he pulled away nicely from a talented yardstick in Dylan Ross. With further likely improvement likely to come due to the sounder surface, he will likely face at Cheltenham, he looks a leading contender and the 10/1 available in the odd place is reasonable. This son of Montjeu is also a reportedly good home worker which is why it is so unnerving to hear Willie Mullins be so disappointed with his recent efforts, as such he is no longer a definite runner and, even if he was, these negative reports so close to the race would be enough to put anyone off getting involved now or on the day.

Midnight Game is owned by the Gigginstown juggernaut and their retained jockey, Davy Russell, is going to have a tough decision to make as he will also have the option of riding my selection TRIFOLIUM. He is 14/1 generally and if Davy Russell does decide to ride him then he will be significantly shorter. I had my concerns about the Charles Byrnes runner after his last run and at the time it seemed like he may not even run at Cheltenham, but now that seems very much the plan. One of my concerns is that all his best form is on soft/heavy ground and he has seemed to enjoy the test of ploughing through mud over 2 miles. It is to be taken on trust that he will handle the quicker ground at Cheltenham and for him to win he will need to improve for it as well but his trainer is confident he will do. I am willing to believe him now seeing as the Supreme is his target and the way he quickened so impressively last time suggests he should have the necessary speed to compete over the minimum trip on the projected ground.

Trifolium was not fully extended on his most recent start and yet he beat Simenon, well regarded by Willie Mullins, by nine lengths. The rate of improvement he has shown suggests he is one of the few in the Supreme who could still be anything and since the application of cheek pieces he has jumped accurately, a trait that is necessary for this race, which, in all likelihood, will be run at a furious pace. Davy Russell has mentioned a worry that Trifolium has so far pulled quite hard which will have a detrimental effect on his Cheltenham challenge and this was the excuse given for his convincing defeat by So Young. He was far better at Punchestown though and So Young is an extremely high class animal who should be challenging Big Buck’s, hence there was no disgrace in that performance. This was probably Trifolium’s only run against top class opposition and he seemed to fail which must niggle but he was not at his best that day and even so, without Simonsig in the field, there does not appear to be a truly top class horse in opposition. At 14/1 this son of Goldneyev (also the sire of Balder Succes) is value and there is scope to shorten, with the possibility of him becoming the only Gigginstown House Stud representative, even if he isn’t, money will surely come for him given the doubts around many of the others. With so much potential and all the necessary attributes to be competitive in a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Trifolium has every chance of kicking off the meeting with an Irish victory.

The Rest

Colour Squadron and Montbazon are closely matched having beaten each other at Newbury this season. Colour Squadron was travelling strongly when falling last time and could have beaten Montbazon again, in which case he is overpriced at the moment. His tendency to hang is a huge concern, though, as he showed when giving away the Tolworth and he possibly prefers softer ground. This would be enough to put me off him and I don’t rate Montbazon any higher. He looks to me the sort who will appreciate further and is yet to excite me over hurdles in the way he did in bumpers. Tetlami, a winner of a Cheltenham bumper, is a solid candidate for Nicky Henderson but the vibes from the yard are that Darlan is their number one. He is probably underestimated, as he is not a flashy sort, but his form at Kempton has taken a knock with Vulcanite’s recent run at Newbury. It was Vulcanite’s first run over obstacles when second to Tetlami at Kempton and he has surely improved since then. Having gained experience he is possibly capable of reversing that form, especially with the progress in his jumping which is now superior to anything else in the field. This is so important at Cheltenham hence at a big price it would be no surprise to see him finish in the frame. Last time at Newbury he was not ridden to best effect and he must be better than he showed there.

Prospect Wells has come in for support recently with him being seen as a value bet considering his proximity to Steps To Freedom at the Paddy Power meeting in November. I take the view that Jessica Harington’s star novice was below his best that day and Prospect Wells was flattered. Since then Paul Nicholls’ charge has been exposed as below top class and his last run, behind Colour Squadron at Sandown, was lamentable. He reportedly had a breathing problem there, which has been fixed, but it is very rare for a horse to run so poorly on his final start before Cheltenham and still win the Supreme.

Simonsig goes for the Neptune

Nicky Henderson has finally decided Simonsig's Cheltenham Festival target and unfortunately he will be going for the Neptune Investmentment Management Novices' Hurdle over 2m5f. I have championed him for the Supreme all year and it looked the perfect race. He seems to have a huge amount of speed, as well as stamina  and I've not seen anything travel as strongly this season, a stiff 2m round Cheltenham was ready-made for him.

The only jumping issues I've noticed were at Kelso, but there were problems with the low sun and as a result Simonsig probably couldn't see the obstacles in front of him. Connections feel Simonsig needs more time at his hurdles and suggest this is the main reason they have chosen the longer race, but I think he is a decent jumper.

Barry Geraghty was always going to have a good ride in the Supreme with Tetlami and Nicky Henderson was always going to have a strong hand with him and Darlan, but the stable's Neptune candidates have generally not shown enough and as result if Simonsig had gone for the Supreme, Geraghty and Henderson would not have had much chance in the Neptune. By running Simonsig in the Neptune, Barry Geraghty has two very strong rides and Nicky Henderson has the favourite for both races. I feel this has significantly influenced the decision.

The run behind Fingal Bay is probably still the single best piece of novice hurdle form this season. Simonsig was seemingly out-stayed at Sandown but I believe the Henderson yard think their horse wasn't at his peak that day and it has been rumoured that he has recently had a breathing operation. If he is better than he showed then and there was something preventing him from going through with his effort then Simonsig is a huge player in the Neptune as well. However, the manner in which he travels so strongly suggests a drop in trip is preferred and I would still worry that he failed to see out the trip at Sandown. Of course, with the latest injury to Fingal Bay he will not need to reverse that form and he may well, therefore, be good enough to win it on that performance. I'm sure the lack of Fingal Bay also had a bearing on Nicky Henderson's decision as straight after the run at Sandown he said he did not want to take on Philip Hobbs' charge again.

When one considers Simonsig's breeding, his pointing background, the 2m2f bumper win and the lack of Fingal Bay then it is understandable to chose the further race but on his runs this season he has looked all speed and it looks the wrong decision that has been based on Henderson's strength in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, not on what is best for the horse.