Triumph Hurdle Update: Baby Mix, Sadler’s Risk, Grumeti and Minsk

Kempton

Racing Plus chase day is traditionally informative for the Triumph Hurdle, offering the last recognised trial for the race. The Adonis Hurdle has a quite astonishing role of honour and in the last two years it has produced the last two Triumph winners, incidentally both making the debuts in this country. It is often the race where trainers target their top Triumph prospects and this was again in evidence on Saturday.

My immediate reaction to the race was to take a dim view of the form but having watched it a few more times I realise that was rash and I was probably influenced by my ill-thought-out backing of Dildar, who’s jumping will have to improve dramatically if he is to be any sort of force over hurdles. I haven’t yet warmed to Baby Mix and following his abject performance at Cheltenham, on Trials Day, I felt I had taken the right stance on him. He was undeniably impressive in the Adonis though, and with the previous antepost favourite for the Triumph (with a few bookmakers at least) in second, well clear of the third, there is more substance to the form than I had originally given credit for.

Baby Mix travelled strongly in second, during Saturday’s race, off the punishing pace set by the admirable Dark And Dangerous and, barring one shuddering error at the fourth flight, jumped noticeably well. A trait I had not associated with Tom George’s charge, he jumped particularly poorly on his last start. Paddy Brennan took it up as they turned into the straight, which was a bold move as he left himself vulnerable to not only a strong stayer but also his own questionable temperament, and his superiority told as he pulled away nicely from Sadler’s Risk. He may have given backers of the second hope as he seemingly idled towards the finish, but this was nothing less than a comfortable victory for the son of Al Namix.

Baby Mix came to everyone’s attention when he stormed clear of the well regarded Hinterland at Cheltenham’s December meeting. However, I’m yet to be convinced that was a good as it looked as Hinterland took a keen hold through the race and would clearly have benefitted from a lead. Baby Mix also showed he was not the most straightforward on the run in with the awkward way he carried himself, especially his tail. These signs were a precursor to his temperamental run at the same course in January. He fought for his head with Paddy Brennan for most of the race and found nothing of the bridle as a result. Of most concern, however, was his attempt to run out as they straightened up for home. Tom George has said he has ironed out these problems and they did not seem to affect him on Saturday but they will always be in the back of one’s mind when considering Baby Mix for the Triumph. While his defeat of Sadler’s Risk looks strong and on that basis is rightly sitting at the top of the antepost market, with the likely crowds and atmosphere at the Festival on Gold Cup day these issues may resurface and that would be enough to put me off him.

The Triumph is over one furlong further than the Adonis and if Baby Mix displays his least redeeming features in that then Sadler’s Risk looks capable of reversing the form and threatening the other major contenders in March. This son of Sadler’s Wells was useful on the flat and beat the high class Sea Moon in his maiden. He showed his toughness on the level which is important when making the transition to hurdles and on his first start for Hobbs, also at Kempton, he went off at even money and won with considerable ease. Sadler’s Risk won as impressively as one could have hoped for and he was made antepost favourite for the Triumph after the race. Many expressed concerns that he had beaten little but the Philip Hobbs stable rate him highly and were expecting him to win hence he was still sent off another well backed favourite for the Adonis. He was keen early in the race but as the pace quickened he was always going best behind Baby Mix. Unfortunately for connections he just couldn’t match the jumping or pace of the winner for all that he stayed on promisingly at the finish. He may have been flattered by the proximity to the winner but Sadler’s Risk does look a solid proposition for the Triumph with the necessary stamina and it would be remiss of me to put anyone off having a go each way but I fear he may just lack the class of some including Saturday’s winners Baby Mix and Grumeti.

It was thought that Grumeti would take in the Adonis as his last prep race for the festival but connections were eager for him not to have a hard race so close to the Triumph so they switched to the Dovecote Hurdle which, in comparison, looked easy pickings. The late withdrawal of principal rival Keys meant his only significant dangers were two horses yet to run over hurdles Terre Du Vent and Dodging Bullets. Both ran highly promising races and, assuming Terre Du Vent recovers from her nasty fall, they should both go on to better things. Grumeti won just as intended without coming off the Bridle and he should be set up nicely for Cheltenham. As has been the case through his hurdling career he jumped quickly and accurately here and, but for an unlucky slither on landing at Newbury, he would be carrying an unbeaten record forward to the Triumph. He is at present a worthy favourite for that and should have every chance of giving Alan King his next Triumph Hurdle winner, interestingly so should stablemate Balder Succes, extremely impressive at Ascot, who looks to be going that route as well now and Robert Thornton has a tough decision to make. It is possible that Balder Succes’ preference for give in the ground may point him towards Grumeti, although he has not confirmed anything yet.

Fairyhouse

The value in the Triumph Hurdle market may now lie in Ireland with the likes of Darroun and Shadow Catcher but value is not something you could have accused Minsk of being before his run at Fairyhouse on Saturday. Ever since his ultra impressive win in the Irish Cesarewitch Minsk has been talked up as a Triumph Hurdle horse and as such was always around the head of the antepost market for it. As word came out from the Dessie Hughes stable that he had taken to hurdling well more and more people were seemingly backing him in anticipation of a scintillating display on debut, resulting in him being around 6/1 favourite for the Triumph before his run on Saturday. For a horse who had never run over hurdles before this looked a short price and so it proved, for all that he had excuses.

With so much expected one could feel only disappointment after he finished second but for any normal debut run over hurdles this was more than you could hope for, especially in a Grade 2. He jumped fine on the whole, with one early mistake and a slightly slow leap at the last but he clearly just needs experience. It was a decent performance, splitting two talented if not brilliant juveniles, and it was also impressive how, having been held up in rear for most of the race, he made his way to the front just before the last where that slow leap cost him ground and potentially victory. The subsequent discovery of an infection makes the performance all the more meritorious, and it would be difficult to argue that he will not turn out to be the best hurdler in the race. Sadly with this ailment he misses the Triumph Hurdle and we will have to wait a little longer to discover if he can justify the tremendous hype surrounding him.

Supreme Novices Update: Newbury, Ascot, Fairyhouse and Kelso

It was an important week for Supreme Novices candidates and it was probably the last time we were likely to see those with real chances running before the festival. There is still the chance that one or two of the very good four year olds could target the race following the Adonis on Saturday but the Triumph hurdle is naturally the more obvious target.

Newbury

On free-day Friday at Newbury we saw Darlan in the Betfair Hurdle and Montbazon, Vulcanite and Colour Squadron in a particularly competitive Novices event. Darlan had been around 9/1 second favourite behind Zarkandar for a while going into the Betfair Hurdle but he was weak on the day and drifted to 12/1. There were doubts over the strength of his form, for all that he was unbeaten, as he had not yet been properly tested. Following his last victory on the bridle at Taunton, where he beat Jump City by half a length, Barry Geraghty was keen to play down the amount he was likely to find once asked a question. As a result it was quite surprising to see the handicapper bump him up 9lbs afterwards; this was reduced by 3lbs later on after Jump City ran so poorly next time out, but it was too late for Friday’s (rearranged) race as the weights were already published.  

Darlan

We didn’t know how good Darlan actually was in the run up to last week’s run and after the race we are still none the wiser. Held up in the last third of the field for most of the way, McCoy kept Darlan wide presumably to give him a good view of his hurdles and ironically he jumped well. Often gaining ground at his obstacles, he travelled strongly and was not inconvenienced as the pace quickened. He moved sweetly through the field on the approach to the home turn and despite his inexperience he squeezed through a gap on the bend, putting him in third as they straightened up for the run-in. Travelling best of all, he reached two out just sharing the lead looking the most likely winner, before he failed to pick his legs up at the hurdle and took a crunching fall.

There is no way of knowing, until he runs again, what he would have found off the bridle. He may have found a great deal and still lost considering the race was won by a top Champion Hurdle prospect. Whatever happens, this performance will have enhanced Darlan’s reputation and at least his price for the Supreme no longer looks ridiculously short. This son of Milan is evidently a live contender for the traditional opener to the festival and if one knew that he had suffered no ill-effects from his fall then it would be folly to rule him out. It is quite a large ‘if’, however, as it was quite a major incident for a horse with so few miles on the clock and he may well remember such an unpleasant experience next time. It is also notable that he has made a mistake late on in every hurdle race he has run in. The least severe of these was at Cheltenham but he did lose momentum and he came slowly away from the flight, only managing to beat the vastly inferior High Storm by a nose. Whether he makes these mistakes because his jumping suffers as the pace quickens, or whether everything comes so easily to him that he loses concentration, is difficult to decide but it will be a nagging doubt in my mind particularly as he will face a number of fluent hurdlers at the festival. Had Darlan jumped the last two at Newbury fluently and won the Betfair Hurdle he would no doubt be favourite for the Supreme and the 12/1 available now would look massive. Sadly for connections he didn’t and still, for me, Darlan is too much of an unknown quantity to get involved with. Yet, at the same time, it would come as no shock were he to win handsomely in March.  

The very next race on Newbury’s card was a 2m Novices’ Hurdle involving three well regarded sorts all with great expectations. Montbazon came out comfortably on top but the race had a rather unsatisfactory feel to it. They went a slow pace early and when the three market principals drew alongside each other at the second last flight, the horse going best, Colour Squadron, fell.

Montbazon

I was huge fan of Montbazon as a bumper horse last season and I fully expected win the bumper at Cheltenham on his first start back but he was in need of the race and failed to impress in the paddock. Alan King’s charge clearly benefitted from the experience and his first run over hurdles came at Newbury where he was beaten into second on ground that didn’t suit by, the aforementioned, Colour Squadron. His next run came at Plumpton where he was sent off at 1/10 and won as expected but his jumping throughout was sloppy. This was concerning and, wrongly, I was worried that these frailties might find him out against a far better class of opposition but he looked an extremely competent hurdler on Friday. He travelled well through the race and when sent on to reach the leaders before two out he responded, before moving decisively clear of Vulcanite from the last.

Montbazon was rightly shortened significantly in the market for the Supreme and he looks to hold a sound each way chance. Beforehand on Friday he was the clear paddock pick, he was fit and imposing and looked a different horse to when I had last seen him at Cheltenham. If he stands out like this in March then he is worthy of consideration at least, especially as he appears to have the requisite stamina to win a Supreme Novices, but I am not convinced he is quite as classy as a number of other runners. The way he pulled away at Newbury was pleasing but he doesn’t have the burst acceleration that a few at the head of the Supreme market seem to. He looks more of a strong galloper and may be better suited to further in the long term. Finishing 7l clear of the well regarded Vulcanite is strong form on paper but Montbazon hasn’t excited me this year like he did last and I feel Vulcanite probably didn’t run best race either.

Vulcanite

Vulcanite was a little keen at Newbury and making his own pace is unlikely to have suited him. He was tiring from the last and without the departure of Colour Squadron he would have finished third. With a lead and a fast pace at Cheltenham I am sure he will be seen in a better light. I couldn’t be sure that he would reverse the form with Montbazon but I doubt there would be 7l in it. What he did show at Newbury, which bodes well for Cheltenham, was his exceptional jumping. He never broke stride, so quick and nimble, I would be surprised if anything could match him in this department in the Supreme having seen this display. The marked improvement from his first start where he ploughed through the first two hurdles is astonishing. Also worth noting is that since I last wrote about Vulcanite’s Supreme prospects his form has taken a notable boost. It was clear that his run behind Tetlami was strong form but when he thrashed a field at Southwell it was widely reported that he beat very little. In fact, 7l down in second was Spiekeroog who won his next start defeating Bourne in the process. Bourne then came out at Ascot on Saturday and was impressive in winning a competitive handicap hurdle. If Vulcanite’s run at Newbury can be forgiven then he looks a solid outsider for Cheltenham.

Colour Squadron

The second last had an impact on all the hurdle races at Newbury. Colour Squadron’s fall there was a major disappointment as he looked to be tanking along in between Montbazon and Vulcanite. Richard Johnson reined him back in an attempt to stop him hitting the front too soon on account of his antics at Sandown but before he could let him go the Old Vic gelding slithered on landing ejecting his rider. Much like Darlan you cannot be sure if Colour Squadron would have won but you have a much better idea as he had defeated Montbazon on the course previously so he would surely have been thereabouts. Of course, that is to forget the quirks he seems to have developed and with his violent hanging in the Grade 1 Tolworth he is surely one to avoid in any race of note, particularly the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

Ascot

At Ascot on Saturday a horse leapt into the reckoning for the Supreme with an emphatic display. Following two impressive wins, in a minor novice hurdle at Plumpton and a three runner juvenile hurdle at Ascot, Balder Succes was thought of as a possible Fred Winter or Aintree juvenile hurdle horse. He was running on Saturday against his elders, in a better race than he had previously faced, with the aim of discovering if he could be worthy of a place in the Triumph hurdle. He was so impressive on Saturday in beating the useful Captain Sunshine that he is now under consideration for the Supreme Novices against older horses. He jumped with real enthusiasm on Saturday and he again displayed an easy way of going which suggests a fast pace should suit. He showed how much class he’s got by quickening clear from the second last and at his age he should keep improving. I would have him ahead of Montbazon in terms of his chance in the Supreme and the four year old allowance can only be a benefit.

I must temper my enthusiasm by saying that the race somewhat fell apart at Ascot. His main rival Hazy Tom, whose form had worked out so well earlier in the season, was far too keen and in the end ran a horrible race. Similarly the second, Captain Sunshine was outpaced at an alarmingly early stage before staying on. It was a race that didn’t take much winning but he could do no more than win in the manner he did. Very few novice hurdlers have created such a good impression this season and at this stage the Supreme Novices looks the right race but as a juvenile hurdler there is the always chance he could run in the Triumph. This may well be an easier race and he now looks right among the best of his age group. I just believe Alan King would rather run him in the Supreme as Grumeti looks to have a better chance in the Triumph than Montbazon does in the Supreme and he has already proved himself against older horses. As a consequence, the 20/1 widely available (25/1 in a place) looks generous.  

Fairyhouse

On Wednesday two horses at the head of the Supreme Novices market ran and won impressively without coming off the bridle. The first was Galileo’s Choice at Fairyhouse, the second was Simonsig at Kelso. Galileo’s Choice won as he was entitled to, never coming off the bridle in defeating Becauseicouldntsee by 4 ½ lengths. As novice hurdle form that is nothing special seeing as the second is more a 4 mile chaser than a 2 mile hurdler but this son of Galileo travelled and quickened like the smart horse he had already shown to be. He is a Group 3 winner on the flat, looks to have plenty of speed and he clearly stays well as he showed when chasing home Sous Les Cieux in the Grade 1 Royal Bond. He should really have won that race however and he lacks the scope for improvement that a number of others in the Supreme have, including Midnight Game who finished well behind him that day. There probably won’t be many in the festival curtain raiser with as much class as him but he still hasn’t done or shown enough for me over hurdles to consider him as a likely winner and with his trainer’s record at the festival he is one at a short price that I am willing to strike a line through.

Kelso

In the Morebattle Hurdle we saw Simonsig win hard held from another staying chaser Knockara Beau. Run over 2m 2f this race told us very little about Simonsig that we didn’t already know. As my antepost selection for the Supreme I had been hoping for Nicky Henderson to drop him back in trip to 2m to really test his speed. Instead he ran over a trip in between that of the Neptune and the Supreme. Nicky Henderson still insists he has not decided which race to go for with this imposing grey but Barry Geraghty has already voiced a preference for the longer race as it will give a bit more time at his hurdles. Simonsig made mistakes at the final two hurdles at Kelso but there was an excuse for those as the sun was very low and he probably had trouble seeing the flights. Aside from those I have seen no issues with his jumping and in fact I see it as an asset. Geraghty clearly has his own interests in that he already has a strong ride in the Supreme, Tetlami, where as in the Neptune he has nothing outside of Simonsig that could challenge those at the head of the market. I can therefore forgive him this oversight but from all the evidence I have seen he must go for the Supreme. The major point is that in the Neptune he has to take on Fingal Bay again who comprehensively beat him at Sandown. While Simonsig may not have been at his very best that day I still don’t see him reversing the form over the longer trip. Furthermore, in the Neptune he will face Boston Bob and Monksland, two other outstanding candidates where as the Supreme has a far more open feel to it, for which he is favourite (as short as 6/1). In the Neptune, Simonsig will be one of the best, in the Supreme he will be THE best. This is a point trainer Nicky Henderson has already alluded to and for that reason I would still be inclined to think he will run in the shorter race. Hopefully this is not just wishful thinking.....

Deloitte Novice Hurdle Review

Before the race this looked an informative Supreme Novices trial with a number towards the top of the antepost lists, including three grade 1 winners. After the race it looks more like a Neptune Investments/Albert Bartlett novices hurdle trial if it’s to have any bearing on the Cheltenham Festival at all.

Largely unconsidered for the Leopardstown contest and almost entirely unconsidered for the Championship Novice events at the Festival, Benefficient, at odds of 50/1, caused a shock by winning the Deloitte Novices Hurdle over 2m2f. The outsider of the seven runner field set off boldly in front and, thanks to a neat tactical ride from Bryan Cooper, was never headed. Jumping soundly throughout Tony Martin’s charge always looked comfortable and he quickened smartly from the second last creating an unassailable lead in the process.

After a wholly unsuccessful hurdling debut over two miles, he was stepped up in trip an extra four furlongs at Navan. Front-running tactics were employed and he lost his maiden tag in style, defeating the well regarded 1/2 favourite Knockgraffon King by eight lengths. Then, last time out, over a trip over another 2 furlongs further at Thurles more of the same was expected as he was sent off favourite. On this occasion Benefficient ran as if something was amiss, finishing pulled up in a race won by, the admittedly smart, Folsom Blue. After the race he scoped dirty and in hindsight, evidently too much emphasis was placed on this lacklustre display and, as a result, he was severely underestimated in the market for the Deloitte.

While this son of Beneficial deserved his victory, it is hard not to come to the conclusion that the result would have been different were the race to be run again. Tactics were all important and I struggle to envisage him pulling off something similar at Cheltenham, particularly in his probable target the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle. He is clearly at home over a trip further than two miles hence I would be stunned to discover that the Supreme was on his agenda.

Where Bryan Cooper on Benefficient won the tactical battle, Ruby Walsh on Sous Les Cieux lost it. He held Sous Les Cieux back in last place from the off and he was not helped by the relatively slow jumping from his mount early on. He struggled to get into a threatening position for most of the way until just as Walsh made his move Sous Les Cieux made a race defining error as his momentum was lost, leaving the eventual winner too far clear. Sous Les Cieux stayed on strongly up the straight and was gaining ground on the leader all the way to the line but a second grade 1 victory never looked on the cards.

I have written before of my liking for this horse but I have never been convinced that two miles was his trip. He won his maiden over two-and-a-half miles very impressively and then he was dropped down to the minimum trip in the grade 1 Royal Bond which he also won well. This showed he had the necessary speed for two miles but I felt that a positive ride from Ruby Walsh had won him the day. He picked the pace up from the front runner early in the straight and used his stamina to best effect comfortably holding off the speedy Galileo’s Choice. At Leopardstown, on his next start, he was tried again in a small field grade 1 over two miles (the Future Champions Novice Hurdle) and this time he was in front from the off. Unfortunately for connections he was too keen and folded tamely in a race that seemed all wrong, the form is probably worth ignoring when considering the major novice hurdles in the spring. Most people were content in putting a line through that performance and as such he was sent off favourite on Sunday.

The extra two furlongs were expected to suit and he ran a far better race using tactics far removed from his previous foray to Leopardstown. Had he jumped the second last with any fluency he probably would have won and he may still have been a live candidate for the Supreme but the manner in which he finished on Sunday suggests this is a horse that will surely thrive for a return over further in the Neptune. Ideally I hope Willie Mullins will decide to step the stamina filled Boston Bob up in trip as well and target him at the eminently winnable Albert Bartlett on Gold Cup day, paving the way for Sous Les Cieux to take on Fingal Bay. The current best price available for this son of Saints Des Saints (16/1) is reasonable as I can’t see him going for any other race at Cheltenham and it has the propensity to dramatically shorten were Mullins to do the right thing and run Boston Bob in the Albert Bartlett. If there is a horse to come out of the Deloitte and challenge at Cheltenham it is Sous Les Cieux but it won’t be in the Supreme Novices.   

Another horse bound to improve for a step up in trip was the third on Sunday, Il Fenomeno. This Italian bred son of Denon ran a huge race in the circumstances and is a gelding I had underrated up to this point. In his second season as a novice, Noel Meade’s charge has improved beyond all recognition and his grade 3 win over stablemate Dylan Ross in November set a decent level of form. In the Royal Bond next time he patently lacked the pace for two miles and, as he showed in the Deloitte as well, he lacks the pace of Sous Les Cieux. Il Fenomeno’s run on Sunday suggests to me that a significant step up in trip is required. He put his head down and battled all the way up the run in and even with a final flight blunder he held off a challenge from Lord Windermere. Sadly his only festival entry is in the Supreme and I now doubt whether he will turn up at Cheltenham at all.

Prior to the race Lord Windermere did not look to have the class to win this grade 1 and it showed as he was well placed throughout but lacked the finishing speed of Benefficient, the stamina of Sous Le Cieux and the battling qualities of Il Fenomeno. Finishing fourth was no disgrace and like most of the field he will benefit from a step up in trip but he was exposed as being below top class here and a trip to Cheltenham would surprise me. Of the rest, Burn And Turn was outclassed and finished last but is capable of winning decent races back at her level. The two major disappointments of the race were both previous grade 1 winners. Cash And Go and Captain Conan had both won races where the form is questionable and doubts over their credibility as Supreme Novice candidates were well founded.

Cash And Go had won the Future Champions Novice Hurdle, the race in which Sous Les Cieux disappointed, but I suspect all bar the winner ran below form. Even Edward O’Grady’s charge jumped poorly in winning that grade 1. He had excuses on Sunday, as he was found to be lame and scoped badly post race, so it is possible to put a line through that run but even judged on his grade 1 win he is not a horse I would consider for the Festival curtain raiser.

Captain Conan had been gift-wrapped his grade 1 victory by Colour Squadron in the Tolworth at Sandown. Had Colour Squadron been able to stay on a reasonably straight course he would have won relatively comfortably and the shocking run of Prospect Wells also leaves further question marks surrounding the strength of the form. Nicky Henderson’s French import travelled well through the Deloitte but emptied alarmingly quickly. Inexperience may have cost him and it would not be a surprise if there were excuses akin to those of Cash And Go but as his trainer had suggested before the race Captain Conan is next year’s horse and will in all probability miss Cheltenham. He may well flourish over fences and be serious contender for the 2013 festival but this year Henderson has far better prospects for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. 

Supreme Novices Update: Trifolium

During an exceptional weekend of sport one performance may have gone under the radar.  Arsenal’s super seven against Blackburn, Manchester United’s comeback at Stamford Bridge, the titanic tussle between Wales and Ireland in the Six Nations, the Giants’ victory in the Super Bowl and even the demolition of Big Zeb by Sizing Europe all overshadowed Trifolium’s win at Punchestown which has put him right into the Supreme Novices picture. Although with the absence of jump racing in Britain it’s possible many will have been focussed on the Irish racing more than ever.

Trifolium is a more experienced hurdler than most of his likely Supreme rivals. He has already run six times but importantly he seems to have a progressive profile.  On his first two starts in Ireland he ran extremely promising races and was placed on both occasions. Each time he was keen and finished relatively weakly. Accounting for this, his connections decided on a set of cheek pieces and a change in tactics on his next start at Cork where he was allowed to get on with it. Making all, he never saw another rival and in the end pulled, an eye-catching, 24 lengths clear. This change in tactics looked the way to go and next time out he set off in front again. Once more he won comfortably, never off the bridle, beating handicapper Plan A by just over 8 lengths. Trifolium appeared to cope well with the small field on his first start out of novice company so his trainer targeted a similar type of race at Navan for his next run. This time he faced a far sterner test up against one of last season’s top novices So Young.

Trained by the phenomenon that is Willie Mullins, So Young has been talked up as a possible challenger to Big Buck’s over 3 miles this season but on this occasion he stuck to two miles on testing ground. With such a formidable opponent it was always going to be tough and So Young was clearly expected to win as he was sent off at 1/3. He duly did and won well, with Trifolium 7½ lengths behind. On bare form this was another promising run but, in reality it was somewhat disappointing. Intriguingly, the evidently successful front-running tactics weren't employed this time on Trifolium, thereby handing the initiative to the masterful Ruby Walsh. It is possible they were worried about the son of Godneyev’s tendency to be keen and they were hoping to teach him to settle with a view to the festival where it is extremely difficult to win from the front. However, yet again Trifolium took a very keen hold and for the first half of the race Charles Byrne’s charge was fighting with jockey Davy Russell, but surprisingly between the third and second last he looked to be travelling better than So Young. For a second an upset was on the cards, but his early exertions had cost him as Trifolium had nothing more to give when So Young quickened away after the two out. This was to some extent understandable given the strong gallop set by Ruby Walsh on the soft-heavy ground. In spite of this his propensity to pull was alarming for a Cheltenham Festival aspirant and Charles Byrnes was keen himself to give the 5 year old one more run for experience.  

At Punchestown on Sunday they again decided to take a lead but this time he settled noticeably better and travelled smoothly throughout before an ultra impressive turn of foot approaching the home bend put the race to bed, only having to ridden out hands and heels to finish, a more than, convincing 9 lengths clear of another Mullins trained adversary Simenon. This was back in novice company and he was strongly fancied to win, sent off a 7/4 favourite, but nonetheless it was a tremendous display.

This performance would suggest he has a huge chance in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in March. Ever since the cheek pieces were applied his jumping has been assured and it was particularly good on Sunday. He also displayed the necessary pace for the festival curtain raiser and two miles looks to be his trip at this stage. Bearing all this in mind, the 16/1 available for Trifolium looks a fair price and it would be difficult to dissuade anyone from taking it. However, all his best runs over hurdles so far have come on soft or heavy ground and the way he powered through it at Punchestown suggests he relishes the surface. His trainer stated after the race he would improve for better ground and if this was true then he would have every chance in March, but I have my doubts. What he achieved in winning by 9 lengths is also debatable. Simenon had won a very weak maiden at Cork previously and possibly wants further than two miles and Joxer, who looked to be Trifolium’s main rival before the race, made two terrible mistakes, when still going well, at the third and second last flight effectively ending his chances. I feel the race was not a strong one and Trifolium will have to improve again if he is to challenge at Cheltenham especially when you think that the only time he faced a top class rival he was beaten comfortably, albeit with excuses. These excuses mainly revolved around his inability to settle and while he was fine on Sunday it would still be a major worry for me. Even Davy Russell said after the race at Punchestown that he worried about his keen going nature for Cheltenham and his not sure the track will suit. My final concern would surround his owners Gigginstown House Stud. They already have Midnight Game (Willie Mullins) who looks a better candidate for the Supreme Novices and is shorter in the in the betting. Second guessing them is always difficult but he looks their number one and with worries over the track suiting Trifolium you cannot be sure he will even turn up at Cheltenham. 

Weekend Review - Triumph Hurdle Trials

This weekend saw a number of different Triumph Hurdle hopefuls testing their credentials. While there were some notable disappointments, Paul Nicholls, Alan King and Willie Mullins will be extremely satisfied with their horses and will look to March full of confidence.

On Cheltenham’s ‘Trials Day’, Grumeti and Pearl Swan laid down their festival markers in the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial. In a desperate finish Pearl Swan came out on top by a short head but after a lengthy stewards’ enquiry the result was amended, the placings were reversed and Grumeti was given the race.  This was the right decision as there had been discernible interference on the run-in and Ruby Walsh was given a controversial three day ban for careless riding. Before the race he was largely unconsidered for the Triumph Hurdle, available at 33/1 with Skybet for example, yet afterwards many felt that Pearl Swan was the horse who ran the best trial and with him being at a best price of 10/1 (as short as 5/1 with one firm) the layers are not taking any chances with him.

Pearl Swan at Taunton

Pearl Swan had first come to the attention of jump racing followers after an authoritative display on his debut for Paul Nicholls at Taunton, just 9 days before his run at Cheltenham on Saturday. He had been a fair flat performer for John Hammond in France and, with his new connections, was sent off a relatively well backed 3/1 second favourite. At Taunton he jumped well, on the whole, and moved through the race like a good horse before quickening powerfully to beat the consistent Ifyouletmefinish four lengths. He evidently had plenty in hand that day and Nicholls wanted to see whether he had a Triumph or Fred Winter horse on his hands by running him on Saturday. Sitting well off the pace throughout, Ruby Walsh, on Pearl Swan, made his move after two out and then at the last he was upsides the leaders before battling with Grumeti all the way up the Cheltenham hill. This run proved to his trainer that he is a Triumph Hurdle horse and he will now head straight for that race without another run. Paul Nicholls is convinced he can improve this son of Gentlewave with his jumping the priority, which looked deliberate at times. He may well find significant improvement in Pearl Swan, in which case he would be a formidable opponent come March but I am still keener on the horse who was awarded the Triumph Hurdle trial, Grumeti.

Grumeti was a useful on the flat for Michael Bell and was seen as a good jumping prospect by his current connections. At the Newmarket sales current connections went to £100,000 to buy this son of Sakhee and on the face of it, this looks good business.

Much like Pearl Swan, Grumeti won his hurdling debut at Taunton. He was even more impressive, pulling fourteen lengths clear of, another formerly talented flat horse and subsequent clear-cut handicap hurdle winner, Ted Spread. In third, a further length back, was Ifyouletmefinish who Pearl Swan had only beaten by six lengths. Grumeti jumped smoothly at Taunton and did much the same at Newbury on his next start where he was all set to demolish his field on the bridle. Unfortunately, at the second last he stumbled on landing and came down. This scuppered, his trainer, Alan King's plan to win comfortably at Newbury before a tilt at the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton. With a worry over the weather turning and a cold snap forcing Grumeti to head straight to festival, after a fall, it was decided a quick run back at Cheltenham was the best course of action. For me, his performance in the trial enhanced his claims for the Triumph Hurdle itself. This run was almost certainly too soon after his fall at Newbury and he started the race like he had fallen recently, jumping slowly at the first few flights. He failed to show the burst of acceleration he displayed at Taunton as a result of him probably not having enough time to recover from his last run. Grumeti was also hindered by the slightly sticky, tacky ground and by the fact that he chased the pace from an early stage unlike his adversary Pearl Swan who had been dropped out. This combined with the interference suffered all the way up the run-in makes his victory all the more meritorious and I am convinced there is significantly more to come.

Alan King has stated that his Triumph hopeful will likely go to the Adonis next for one last bit of crucial experience before the big one. Unless another Zarkandar appears I fully expect him to win that as well as the juvenile hurdlers likely to turn up there have not impressed me to the same extent as Grumeti, and that includes current antepost favourite for the Triumph Saddlers Risk. At this stage Grumeti is right at the top of my Triumph Hurdle list with six weeks still to go and is certainly one to consider antepost.

In third behind Pearl Swan and Grumeti was Hollow Tree who ran his usual good race. He seems to lack the necessary ability for the Triumph Hurdle even though he won the Grade 1 Finale at Chepstow. That is a race that tends to have little bearing on the Triumph itself and it seems clear that Hollow Tree is at his best on soft ground. He may have chance off a big weight in the Fred Winter but I would be quite happy to leave him out of any Triumph Hurdle calculations. Further down the field at Cheltenham was the major disappointment of the race, Baby Mix. The Tom George trained grey finished last of six but he was sent off a 7/4 joint-favourite and was clearly expected to do far better. On his first start for Tom George, also at Cheltenham, Baby Mix ran out an impressive seven length winner and defeated the highly regarded, heavily odds on, Hinterland in the process. On that occasion he travelled strongly and jumped noticeably well before pulling away from Nicholls’ charge. More of the same was expected this weekend but while he travelled strongly for much of the way Baby Mix’s jumping failed to stand up to the test and he made a number of errors. In terms of his Triumph prospects I’m not willing to forgive Baby Mix this run. I’m not convinced his defeat of Hinterland was all that it looked at the time. Hinterland had to force the pace from the front, was keen throughout and, most importantly, was giving the Al Namix Gelding 7lbs. Also, Baby Mix appeared to have a strange head carriage and looked like he was thinking about it on the run-in. He does not look the most straightforward and I cannot envisage circumstances where I would back him for the Triumph.

One further negative for Baby Mix was the run of Hinterland in the handicap hurdle on the same card as the Triumph trial. Hinterland was still in the mix for the Triumph Hurdle going into his run on Saturday and as a result was a well backed favourite. He could only manage third under an interesting ride from Ruby Walsh. While it was not bad run by any means, it looked more of a trial for the Fred Winter than for the Triumph especially as Paul Nicholls has at least two other strong candidates for the race.

Over in Ireland there was hugely eye-catching Triumph Hurdle trial run by the Willie Mullins trained Darroun. He was an expensive purchase for connections at the July Arqana sales in France, costing the princely sum of €140,000. Trained by Alain de Royer-Dupre on the level he managed to win once from three starts and was seen as the perfect type for juvenile hurdling.

It was inexperience that cost him first time up over hurdles at Punchestown where he finished a close second to Shadow Catcher. At Leopardstown on Saturday better was expected and he was sent out in front by Paul Townend, often a sign of confidence behind a Mullins novice hurdler. This grey son of Dalakhani jumped impeccably and he held off the favourite, Hisaabaat, by one and a quarter lengths. Hisaabaat had previously finished second to two Irish hopes for the Triumph, Sportsmaster and, Darroun’s stablemate, Ut De Sivola. Dermot Weld’s juvenile is a good yardstick in these Irish events and he looked the winner approaching the last as he was still on the bridle, but Willie Mullin’s charge outbattled him and in the end the margin of victory failed to do his superiority justice. It is worth noting that rounding the home turn Darroun appeared to lose his action and his jockey had to stop riding for a few strides giving significant ground to the second and third in the process. He is a strapping gelding and still showed signs of greenness at Leopardstown but in overcoming this and his loss of action, Darroun showed that is a talented horse with tremendous scope for improvement.

As a Triumph Hurdle prospect, Darroun could not have come from a better source with the Aga Khan Studs producing recent winners Zaynar and Zarkandar. He looks to be improving fast and with further progression expected on the quicker festival ground he is surely value at 20/1. There is always the problem with Willie Mullins trained horses that he has another prospect for the same race and this is the case here as he trains Ut De Sivola who is appreciably shorter in the market. He beat Hisaabaat further than Darroun last time but Hisaabaat made a dreadful mistake at the last when travelling strongly and there is every chance he was flattered. I was not overly impressed by this son of Robins Des Champs and I would be confident that in six weeks time Darroun will be Mullins’ first string for the Triumph. This being the case he will be much shorter than the 20/1 available at this stage and I suggest taking that price for the Triumph now. Of course, the last two years have shown there is always the possibility that the best juvenile has yet to be unleashed over hurdles; hence backing Darroun each way is advisable.

Supreme Novices Update

In the last week we have seen three horses stake their claim for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle; Vulcanite, Cinders And Ashes and Midnight Game.

Vulcanite is the first and, so far, only horse to go jumping in the Pearl Bloodstock colours. By the versatile superstar sire Dubawi, he was a classy performer on the level for Ralph Beckett, winning 5 times and finishing just 9 ½ lengths behind the hugely exciting Beaten Up on his final flat start. It was hoped by his Owner, Sheikh Fahad, that if he could transfer his flat ability to hurdles he could set his sights on Cheltenham.

For his first start in the care of Charlie Longsdon Vulcanite was set a stiff task at Kempton on Boxing Day. He faced the Nicky Henderson trained Tetlami who had won his bumper and debut over hurdles impressively. Since then the form of Tetlami’s first run over hurdles has been franked with the second and third winning good races next time out, showing just how tough a test this was for Vulcanite. He ran a race full of promise in finishing a good second with Tetlami all out to beat him by 3 ½ lengths. After the race Charlie Longsdon said it was just inexperience that cost him the race and that the next time he met Tetlami, Vulcanite would reverse the form. On Wednesday, Vulcanite had his second run over hurdles at Southwell. It was a weak race and his trainer admitted that he had to win impressively to be considered for the Supreme. Going off at 1/4 Charlie Longsdon’s charge did not disappoint. Travelling strongly at the head of affairs he quickened away from the field hard on the bridle to win by 7 lengths in the style that was expected.  

On both starts Vulcanite has raced keenly but he was less keen at Southwell, suggesting he is improving with experience. He is likely to have one more run before Cheltenham in which he will have to learn to settle better otherwise he is going to struggle come March. Although it can be argued that he has been keen because, so far, his races have been slowly run. Hence the pace of the Supreme should be in his favour. Another positive for Vulcanite’s Cheltenham aspirations has been his jumping. Following two blunders at his first two hurdles jumped in public at Kempton, Vulcanite has jumped well and enthusiastically. He clearly enjoys his new job and we haven’t seen the best of him yet. The 25/1 available for the Supreme Novices seems a fair price.

However, I am not desperate to take that price at this stage as I see his comfortable victory at Southwell as yet another boost to the extremely solid Tetlami form. I would be far more interested in the 20/1 about him. Connections suggest that Vulcanite should reverse the form with Tetlami next time but I’m not convinced. Even if he were to, it seems that Henderson has at least two with better chances than Tetlami, particularly Simonsig, therefore Vulcanite will have to take a giant leap forward on his next start for me to see him as a contender.  

Cinders And Ashes is a very likeable 5yo who travels strongly, jumps well and quickens like a high class horse. Donald McCain loves him and is confident he can win this year’s Supreme. He was a talented bumper horse, winning twice at smaller tracks before acquitting himself well twice at Cheltenham. On his first run at Cheltenham he was beaten a short head by the talented flat performer Keys. This was some of the best bumper form around and his connections went into the Champion Bumper full of confidence. The son of Beat Hollow travelled like the best horse in the race but weakened, eventually finishing fifth. With an extra year on his back his trainer asserts that he has grown and is a stronger animal.

This season, Cinders And Ashes has run four times over hurdles and should be unbeaten. His only defeat came on his first start at Ascot to Broadbackbob. Having made what looked a race ending error at the fifth flight he lost significant ground on the leaders but eventually picked up again, and to his credit was leading at the last. Unfortunately for his connections his efforts in recovering his position took their toll and he was just outstayed by the Nicky Henderson gelding. Broadbackbob is a smart individual and should have a great chance in the Neptune Investments Novices’ Hurdle, so, on the face of it this was a pleasing debut over hurdles for Donald McCain’s horse. Next time, at Aintree, he came up against his old adversary Keys. Whilst Keys was evidently not suited by the conditions, Cinders And Ashes reversed the form in no uncertain terms, proving just how much he had improved since last season and his liking for soft ground. This was a striking performance, he won by 9 lengths in the end, and is probably still his best over hurdles. His last two runs have been in small fields at Haydock on heavy going and both have been similar performances. On each occasion he has travelled smoothly through the race and picked up the leader late on, before showing his superior class and quickening away. The form of each run is hard to evaluate but his latest performance was more significant as he beat two well regarded horses from top stables and the runner up, Double Ross, has form that ties in with the best novice hurdler around, Fingal Bay. This was also the race Donald McCain ran Peddlers Cross in before his Cheltenham Festival victory.

The trainer’s plan now is to head straight to the Supreme and Cinders And Ashes looks a strong candidate. He has strong bumper form, he handles Cheltenham, jumps hurdles well and travels like the high class horse he appears to be. As a consequence, he is fancied by many and now the longest price available for him is 14/1. This, again, is not an unreasonable price and he has achieved far more than Darlan so far, who is shorter in the betting. It is very hard to knock him but his best form has come on soft or heavy ground. He may well improve for the quicker ground in the spring but it is worth pointing out. As is the fact that he made a shocking jumping error on debut and another mistake at the last on Saturday. In the Supreme he will not have the time to get back into the race like he did at Ascot and he will not be so superior to his rivals that a final flight blunder will not matter, as he was at Haydock. In short, Cinders And Ashes will be thereabouts coming to the last in the festival opener but I would be surprised if there wasn’t at least one horse in front of him come the line.

Midnight Game was bought by Willie Mullins at the Arqana Sale in Saint-Cloud for €185,000 having been runner up twice in listed company on the flat for Jean-Claude Rouget. This was the same sale that in 2009 he bought Zaidpour and it was hoped this son of Montjeu would be a similarly good novice hurdler.

Unlucky not to win first time over hurdles having been hampered at the last, Midnight Game has progressed from there. On his next start he was fourth behind stablemate Sous Les Cieux in the Grade 1 Royal Bond and he would have been closer had he not nearly fallen two from home. Next he went to Leopardstown on Boxing Day an 11/10 favourite and won, beating a subsequent winner, Joxer, by half a length in the process. He stepped up again on that run next time at Naas this weekend in beating the highly touted Dylan Ross comfortably by 2 ½ lengths. With this rate of improvement he has quickly made up into a smart novice hurdler and there is even more to come. What excites me about him is that Mullins believes he is certain to improve for the quicker ground he will face at Cheltenham. This on top of his already progressive profile bodes extremely well for his festival challenge.

As is often the case with Mullins there are a number of different horses he could run in the Supreme Novices and also the Neptune Investments over half a mile further. This makes antepost betting on his horses tricky but luckily for Midnight Game supporters he has stated that the Supreme is the aim. Whether he will be the Mullins first string is another question. The trainer has mentioned recently that the likely target for his, aforementioned, Grade 1 winning novice hurdler Sous Les Cieux is also the Supreme. I am a huge fan of this French bred and Mullins feels he has the requisite speed to challenge over 2m on quick ground but I see him as a better prospect over further. Were Mullins to agree and step him up in trip for the Neptune then I would have to look extremely closely at Midnight Game. If Mullins did make it clear, soon, that he was the best of his 2m novice hurdlers then the 20/1 currently available would look big and quite tempting.

Cheltenham Preview: Ryanair Chase Antepost

The trouble with antepost betting on the Cheltenham festival, at the moment, is that so many horses have a number of different options. This is particularly the case with the novice hurdlers and chasers. As a result, unless you have the word of the trainer or feel like it is worth taking the slightly bigger price when there is a risk of the horse going elsewhere, many of the races at this stage look decidedly unappealing as betting propositions. With the championship races it appears easier to ascertain the likely runners but then when one looks at the Champion Hurdle market there are doubts among a number of horses due to setbacks through the season or a desire to go up in trip and face the mighty Big Buck’s. Even the Gold Cup has problems; in that one of the most interesting runners (and my selection at this stage) is a novice, who theoretically has 3 or 4 options in March. Outside of Grands Crus there appears little value at this stage. The World Hurdle market does have value in it if you are willing to oppose Big Buck’s but again those with potential have various doubts about their participation. This leaves the Champion Case and the Ryanair. It is far easier to predict the fields in these races but in the Champion Chase there are very few contenders and again there appears to be little value outside of choosing a novice who is just as likely to go for the Arkle. Hence, the festival race it is best to concentrate on at this stage from an antepost perspective is the Ryanair Chase over 2 miles and 5 furlongs.

Outside of Captain Chris and Finian’s Rainbow, who will probably in run in the Gold Cup and Queen Mother Champion Chase respectively, the only doubts revolve around fitness. Riverside Theatre, Realt Dubh and, the two times Ryanair Chase winner, Albertas Run would be serious contenders for the race were they to run but due to injuries there are question marks over the participation of each horse. Of the more definite runners at this stage; Rubi Light, Medermit, Gauvain, Somersby and Great Endeavour all seem to have chances on what they have done this season. However, the two I am most keen on now are Noble Prince and Kauto Stone. 

Noble Prince won the Jewson novices chase over 2 miles and a half at Cheltenham on Ryanair Chase day last year. This was an impressive performance and he beat the highest rated novice of last season, Wishfull Thinking, by 4 lengths. It also showed that he handled the course well and the stiff finish seemed to suit him. Then he fell when looking like disposing of the, aforementioned Arkle third, Realt Dubh in the Powers Gold Cup (Grade 1) at Fairyhouse. This season, following a win in a non event at Naas, the Montjeu gelding has run second to Big Zeb twice at 2 miles and in chasing down the former Champion Chaser, who has looked as good as ever this season, Noble Prince has done his Ryanair claims no harm at all and has probably enhanced them. On both occasions he ran extremely well over a trip that is essentially too short for him to be seen at his best.

My concern over Noble Prince is that the form of the Jewson Novices’ Chase has not worked out this season. Wishfull Thinking (2^nd) and Loosen My Load (3^rd) have been hugely disappointing on the whole, and Radium (4^th) has been sent back to France. The form of all last season’s 2m4f+ novice chasers has looked suspect and I would be wary of backing anything from that category for the 2012 festival.

Paul Nolan has said today that the next race for Noble Prince will be in the Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse over 2m1f. He will not face the likes of Big Zeb and Sizing Europe so it should be a race for the taking. If he wins it like he should then his price will shorten slightly but at the moment he is 6/1, half the price of Kauto Stone who I believe at 12/1 looks the value call in the race.

During his time in France Kauto Stone amassed over £500,000 in prize money and he managed to win three chases, as a 4 year old, including the Grade 1 Prix Maurice Millois (won by Long Run in 2009). This performance made him officially the best 4yo chaser in France and he was subsequently bought by Robin Geffen who sent him to Paul Nicholls. As Kauto Star’s half brother he was always going to be an exciting prospect and with his facile success in the grade 2 Ladbrokes.com Chase at Down Royal he did nothing to dampen the enthusiasm for him. After the 2m4f race Nicholls said ‘the Ryanair is an obvious target in the spring’ and this is still the case. Last time out Kauto Stone ran in a soft ground Tingle Creek over 2miles. With his best trip being further than 2m it was thought the soft ground would help make the Sandown race more of a stamina test thereby giving him a good chance of defeating a field which lacked depth. Paul Nicholls successfully did the same thing with Kauto Star on two occasions but with Kauto Stone he was not quite so lucky. Kauto Stone ran extremely well in coming second to the current Champion Chaser Sizing Europe, he was upsides for a long way and it was just between two out and the last that the extra pace and turn of foot that Henry De Bromhead’s horse told. At Down Royal on his first start he made a couple of jumping errors and at Sandown he did much the same with a particularly bad one at the notoriously difficult third and final railway fence. In spite of this, he jumped well in the main and it is probably true that travelling at grade 1 pace over 2m, against an exceptional jumper in Sizing Europe, probably tested his fencing to the limit.

Whilst he was no match for the winner he ran very much as if a step up in trip would benefit and in fairness he did beat Cornas, who had his ideal conditions (a fast run 2m on softish ground), by 5 lengths. In the Haldon Gold Cup, over 2 furlongs further, Medermit only beat Cornas by 1¾ lengths. This then was a very useful performance over 2m and in a race on slow ground without Big Zeb or Sizing Europe he would probably be hard to beat. His next run is likely to be in the Betfair Ascot Chase over the same distance as the Ryanair, where he could face Captain Chris. I’m sure, much like his half-brother, he will improve for the extra distance and he may well win, especially if he sharpens up his jumping. Were this to happen his price would be slashed for the Ryanair and he could challenge for favouritism.

The concerns for those thinking of backing Kauto Stone for the Ryanair Chase are twofold. With him running so well behind the reigning champion chaser over 2m and with the sudden dearth of 2m chasing talent at Ditcheat, now Master Minded and Tataniano are out, Nicholls may decide to go for the shorter championship race. Al Ferof is being considered for the Queen Mother Champion Chase as well but even if he was to run in the Arkle instead, I still find it unlikely that they would run Kauto Stone against Sizing Europe again, as on the Sandown form has no hope of beating him. The second concern would be Kauto Stone’s apparent preference for softer ground than he will almost certainly encounter at Cheltenham. He won his grade 1 in France over 2m6f on heavy going and his impressive win at Down Royal was also in testing conditions but he is not a big, heavy horse so 2m 5f on decent ground should be fine and Kauto Star actually prefers a sounder surface. In summation, the Ryanair Chase looks the perfect race for him and with no standout in what looks an open renewal, Kauto Stone is the selection.